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Assessment of issues related to smuggling and tobacco taxation.

Although tobacco control efforts in Poland actively support tax hikes as an effective means to decreasing consumption, the tobacco industry warns the government against them. Fearful that higher tobacco taxes will reduce consumer sales of their product, the tobacco industry opposes tobacco taxation and contends that higher tobacco taxes lead to smuggling. Losses in sales due to smuggling are a concern for both producers and government. For policymakers in particular, lost legal tobacco sales translate into lost tax revenues.  Although the Health Promotion Foundation is confident that their work can help diminish cigarette smuggling in Poland, complete success in the region will require international cooperation. The information produced by Foundation work will be disseminated through reports, regional seminars and international workshops. In this manner,  policymakers in Poland, in the CEE region and around the world can learn, exchange and develop new approaches to dealing with the rapidly changing and multi-dimensional challenges of smuggling. Below are highlights of research priorities pertaining to Poland’s and CEE’s battle against smuggled cigarettes.

1. Mapping the mechanisms, incentives and characteristics behind tobacco smuggling.

As in all regions and countries around the world, tobacco smuggling in Poland and CEE countries constitutes a critical public health concern. That is, because smuggling brings low priced cigarettes into domestic markets and makes cigarettes both affordable and accessible, smuggling increases cigarette consumption and raises tobacco’s burden on national health. Cigarette smuggling also raises a number of negative economic concerns. Here, tobacco smuggling works to undermine the national system for tobacco taxation. It reduces both the legal sales of cigarettes and total tobacco tax revenues to be collected by the national and/or local government.  In the end, the sale of smuggled cigarettes steals away revenues that could be allocated to the national budget including health services and progress in public health.

2. Identification of tobacco smugglers and products.
Recent evidence suggests that large tobacco companies themselves are active participants in cigarette smuggling, including internal cigarette company documents that have recently become available through anti-tobacco lawsuits disclose details concerning cigarette company activity to both encourage and support global cigarette smuggling. (Tobacco Free Kids, 1999 and 2000; Joossens and Raw, 2000)  This documentation makes open references to the movement of smuggled cigarette products through terminology such as DNP’s (duty-not-paid cigarettes, illegally imported into a country) or GT cigarettes (general trade cigarettes delivered to a country through smuggling rather than legal routes. (Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids, 2000)

3. Measuring the extent of cigarette smuggl ing.
Cigarette smuggling is an illegal market activity and although various governments produce estimates of cigarette smuggling, these statistics are never published, while others are often avoided because they are suspected of being unreliable. Many studies have measured smuggling as the difference between global exports and imports, and have considered the missing cigarettes as “smuggled”. (Joossens, 1998) In addition to monitoring country by country or global tobacco trade, other approaches to measuring tobacco smuggling also exist.  Estimates of smuggling can be captured through surveys of consumers (DTZ Pieda Consulting, 2000), by comparing survey reported tobacco consumption to tobacco sales figures or by comparing cigarette consumption to cigarette sales through modeling. (Merrimen, forthcoming)

4. Dissemination and policy change.
  
Understanding the conditions which give rise to tobacco smuggling as well as the effects of smuggling on tobacco prices, consumption, sales and tax revenues are important elements to the healthy development of tobacco control policies in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe. The Health Promotion Foundation is actively involved in tobacco and tobacco control. Its diverse team of scientific researchers, medical professionals and tobacco-free advocates have the capacity to continue to provide policymakers with the scientific evidence needed to ensure continued tobacco control policy reform.

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